The comments on the video thread are very intriguing and spirited:

Commenter Lillian had this to say:

all people saying it is just luck, if you do research you will find that many many success stories, maybe even all of them, come from people following their guts and doing what they love. this was the way steve jobs worked, and what he believed in. you may not know what it is like to have gut feelings because you have been ignoring them for so long, so just go out and live and do things you think you might like until one day you will feel it. it seems scary to follow your gut at first, but when your truly living vibrantly, you can really feel it and it’s not that scary anymore, it’s just exciting and fun.

Commenter Neil had this to say in response which is an interesting perspective:

Without question I would argue that selection processes for leaders (as an example) tend to favour lucky risk takers rather than the wise. If there’s a bias, it’s in that direction. Beyond that, lucky risk takers (As in the case of Steve Jobs) use hindsight to reinforce their feeling that their gut is very wise. Hindsight also reinforces others’ trust in that individual’s gut. That’s one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence. We associate leadership with decisiveness. That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.

There is likely something to gut feeling.  It might not always be right but a success rate better than 50% could be seen as win.